Build A Community,Build A Site

A Leadership Evolution.

By Roger E. Herman, CSP, CMC, FIMC

Saturday, 1st July 2006

Some significant changes will takeplace in the leadership arena over the next few decades. We'll move from agroup leadership concept to one that places responsibility and accountabilitymuch more in the hands of individuals. The work mode of the future will be muchmore individual-centered than group-centered, with considerableself-determination and high levels of shared-goal collaboration.

Leadership teachings of most of the twentieth century focused on directive,autocratic (or at least top-down) management. The boss was expected to know theanswers, or at least what to do. He, and it was usually a man for most of theperiod, would tell people what to do . . . and they did what they were told.Strict rules were in force and there were serious consequences for violatingthe social system.

In the spirit of McGregor's Theory X , it was assumed that most workers couldnot think for themselves and, therefore, needed a superior to direct theirefforts. Sometimes the "leader" actually was superior in intellect,experience, skill, understanding, or longevity, but often the power came fromthe position itself. "I'm boss, so you must do what I tell you."

As the nature of work evolved, expanding from manual labor and crafts intowhite collar occupations, the directive system was decreasingly effective. Someworkers had the audacity to believe they could think for themselves, that theycould manage at least some of their own work.

Suspecting that an opposite style of management would be more appropriate, theconcepts associated with McGregor's Theory Y came into play. While old-linerswarned that the tail would be wagging the dog, new leaders adopted what becameknown as a democratic leadership style. The movement went so far that wholecompanies tried to operate practically by committee.

Participative Management

Discovering that neither extreme was really satisfactory, managers moved tocenter ground. Enter: Participative Management. Now managers made decisionsagain, but only after some consultation with workers who would be affected bythose decisions. People felt more included, more listened-to, but the systemstill was not working optimally. In those days, most managers had been trainedto be directive managers, so it was difficult for them to change their stripes.

The term "leadership" had been used in most of the 20th century, inways that were synonymous with "management". Now great thinkers beganto suggest that leadership and management were different concepts. Peoplefollowed managers because they were supposed to, it was argued, but theyfollowed leaders because they wanted to.

Why would someone want to follow someone else? Someone that perhaps didn't havepower over them? Rich discussions explored all the wonderful characteristics ofleaders and managers began to think of themselves as exercising leadership aswell as using the power of their position.

The Rise of Teams

As people worked together to get things done, "teams" entered ourlexicon of work relationships.

The concepts of "team" and "leader" merged and teamleadership became the next stage in the progression from "just amanager" to something on a higher plane. Indeed, terminology labelingin-charge people on the front lines as "supervisors," their bosses as"managers," and those at the top as "leaders" reinforcedthe higher nature of this thing we called leadership. One had to move higher upthe organizational ladder to be considered a leader.

Labeling work groups as teams changed the balance. Teams had to have leaders,so leadership words, concepts, and performance trickled down to the lowerlevels of hierarchical organizations. Now anyone could be a leader. New vistaswere opened as we shifted from management to leadership . . . at least in theway we talked. Even today, many workers are managed much more than they're led.

The light bulb of innovation flashed as we realized that maybe teams couldoperate without a separate leader guiding their work. Welcome to the world ofself-directed work teams. This concept, alive and well in many organizations,is a huge threat to the directive manager, still in place in many companies.The two concepts are in conflict, causing some serious concern about what to dowith all those autocratic managers who resist change to more effective modes ofhuman interaction.

For a number of years, there was heavy emphasis on team leadership being thetop of the evolutionary cycle. It's a nice concept, if teams are intact,focused, and honored above individuals. And therein lies the problem.

Focus on the Individual

The workforce has changed, and with those changes come new problems andopportunities. We're moving away from team-ness into a new environment focusedon the individual performer. Much work will still be accomplished in teamrelationships, but those teams will be comprised more of unique individualsdeliberately collaborating to get things done. The energy will come from theindividuals and their connections with each other, rather from an externalleader.

Worker attitudes are shifting. People in their twenties and early thirties, acohort often called Generation X, are much more independent and self-motivatedthan their predecessors. They have a tendency to want more control, moreautonomy, more power, centered in self-leadership. Their highest productivitycomes when they understand the desired results, have the resources to get thejob done, and are left alone to get results. Heavy supervision irritates them,motivating them to leave companies that limit their freedom to perform.

Today's hot economy has created so many jobs--far more than can be filled withavailable workers, that there are abundant opportunities for people to easilymove from job to job. Society has accepted, almost blessed, this movement;job-hopping is now practically encouraged. Many people will change jobs everytwo to four years, making long-life cohesive teams unusual or impossible.There's too much churning for the teams to be intact with the same membershipfor very long.

Facilitative Leadership

In response to these changing circumstances, leadership will evolve to befocused on the individual instead of the team. Leaders will not direct orguide, they will facilitate. The next phase in the cycle is the"facilitative leader."

Facilitative leaders will concentrate on making possible the high performanceof each of their direct reports. Roles will include assuring an understandingof objectives, providing resources, coaching, teaching, encouraging, measuring,and giving objective feedback. (While this description may sound like that of agood supervisor, this style of leadership is not currently in wide practice.)

While receiving this coaching, the individuals will choose to form their ownteams, internally motivated, to collaborate for results. The job of the leaderwill be to prepare people to perform independently, then help them to grow andachieve capitalizing on their individual strengths.

Over the next ten years, the facilitative leadership model will become muchmore prevalent--in all occupations. Some workers in some environments willrequire closer support, but will still want to be more responsible for theirown performance. Initial impetus for this model will be a rise intelecommuting, forcing managers to become less enamored with management principlesand more engaged with the principles and techniques of results-orientedleadership.

By 2010, directive leadership will be practically obsolete. Participativeleadership, with leaders making decisions after increasingly strong involvementfrom workers, will continue until about 2020, responding to the needs of olderworkers who still want, and hence need, some direction. Note that the designwill be participative leadership, rather than the earlier style ofparticipative management.

The term "management" will apply to managing processes, productlines, and other inanimate aspects of economic life. Anything relating topeople will be described as leadership, support, or facilitation, moreaccurately reflecting the actual work associated with the role. To describesomeone as a "manager of people" will be tantamount to an insult or areference to the leader not doing the job that is desired.

Leaders will become more invested in training during the first two decades ofthe 21st century, helping workers adapt to using new technologies to accomplishwork and build productivity. Older workers, in their late sixties, seventies,and eighties will have more need for close support and training.

Self-Leadership

Generation X workers will become gradually more independent and self-driven aslater-borns of this cohort enter the world of work. Right behind them are theworkers from the Millennium Generation , who will be even more fiercelyindependent. They will respond to--demand--a much different style of leadership.

Even with the efforts of the educational system to teach them to work ingroups, the Millennials will be more comfortable driving their own lives.They're more connected through the Internet than they are through personalface-to-face interactions. These workers will be considerably moreself-confident, self-reliant, and self- motivated than any predecessor back tothe pioneering days.

Millennials will manifest significant similarities to the pioneers who builtnew lives for themselves in the 18th and early 19th centuries. They, too, willbuild for themselves and their neighbors--using intellect, imagination,innovation, technology, and creativity to create things we can't even envisiontoday. They'll use computers instead of axes and plowshares, coupled with thesame dogged spirit that characterized the early pioneers.

When we think of the early pioneers, the terms of leadership and managementdon't immediately flash to mind. Those trailblazers didn't need managers; theywere independent and self-driven. If they needed help from others, they askedfor it--and got it--in a spirit of cooperation and synergy. A similar attitudeprevailed in the world of business. Expect the same spirit to prevail in thefirst half of the 21st century. The environment is much the same.

The cottage industries, which served as a foundation for our developing economyas America was settled, will be reflected in the strength of home-basedbusinesses. A variety of arrangements of living and working will emerge, butthey will be dispersed physically and geographically. The leaders who own orrun these businesses may rarely see their employees, and may not even meet someof them personally. By the year 2005, we expect at least 20% of the workingpopulation to be home-based. . . and perhaps even 40% by the year 2020.

Coordinative Leadership

So what of the role of the leader? In an environment of self-determination,leaders will participate by sculpting the "big picture" andcontracting with self-workers to accomplish the work. The superior-subordinatemodel will be outmoded in these relationships.

Leaders will coordinate the efforts of a wide range of independent workers andconsortiums. The skills will be less directive and supportive, though thosefunctions will still be operational. New skills will include persuasion,negotiation, sourcing, stimulating, and high levels of networking.

This emerging leadership role, substantially different from earlier roles, willbe a challenge for older leaders. Late Xers and Millennials will lead easily,but the elders (early Xers and Boomers) will have difficulty with the newstyle. These elder-leaders will work more with older workers whose roles willbe less pioneering and more functional. The transformation will begin around 2010and will be much more aggressive by 2015--the speed of change will unsettle themiddle-aged Generation X folks.

Born after 2005 and coming eagerly behind the Millennials, will be a generationmore attentive to refinement and building systems that will endure and willserve more people. Global outreach will surpass the previous period, andextra-planetary work will bring great progress.

Collaborative Leadership

In these fast-moving times, searching for opportunities to achieve maximumimpact for their participation, leaders will concentrate on connectingindependent performers into networks focused on specific goal accomplishment.Motivations will include various forms of compensation, but will be stronglyfocused on making a positive difference for others.

People will look to leaders as specialists who can aggregate widely diverseresources who can they collaborate to produce results. They'll work with thatleader, that facilitator, because they respect the leader's qualities oflooking toward results, respecting the qualities of each individual, and adesire to help each individual grow, achieve, and fulfill potential. The modelwill be heavily based on caring relationships with a mutual opportunity foreconomic and intrinsic gain. Workers of this time will be looking for theseconnections with their leaders.

Systemic Leadership

Around the middle of the 21st century, systems will develop to provide some ofthe leadership functions performed by the collaborative leaders. Usingartificial intelligence, these computer- driven systems will build and maintainconnections between people with interdevelopmental needs. People's needs willbe met through relationships with others who can to fulfill those requirements. . . and get their own needs fulfilled by their interconnected partners.Elaborate networks of interlocking relationships will maximize human potentialand productivity.

Leaders will oversee the operation of these interconnecting systems and providethe human-to-human caring that machines can't deliver with adequate quality.We'll still desire a reasonable balance between technology and the human touch.Mid-century leadership will evolve to more of a paternal model, coupled with arelationship that is a sort of combination of caring friend and pastoral guide.

Globalization and World 1

The trend towards globalization of business will have a substantial impact onWorld 1. Not only will World 1 recruit the best and best and the brightest fromWorld 2, but it will also locate factories and service facilities in World 2,where real estate and labor will continue to be less expensive. World 1 leaderswill need to be sensitive to the differences between the leadership styles thatare appropriate for their World 1 offices and plants versus those that arelocated in Worlds 2 and 3.

Geo-Sociological Leadership

The evolution and timetable presented above will be the flow in developed World1 countries. Less-developed Worlds 2 and 3 countries will experience adifferent leadership transformation.

During the coming decades, developing countries will benefit from the strongglobal economy. The increasing need for workers will draw more people intoproductive endeavors, but not quite the same way it happened in developedcountries. Work-for-pay will become a part of people's lives, but not a centralfocus. Sensitive employers will facilitate a blending of conventional work withtraditional lifestyles of the people: a work-life balance.

In World 2 countries, more accustomed to a management model, there will be agradual shift to a more participative style.

The evolution of leadership will follow the pattern of the World 1 countries,but with a lag of one to two decades at first. They will come closer to thedeveloped countries model during the 2050-2060 period, as new generationstransform economies and lifestyles.

Western influence will be strong, led by higher education. A large proportionof potential World 2 leaders will gain their university experiences indeveloped countries. Not being as needed in industry, many exemplary leaderswill be teaching on the campuses--preparing the next generation of leaders fortheir pivotal responsibilities. These young, eager leaders will carry thetransformational message home and implement new designs.

A number of World 2 countries already have work-life balance built into theirsystems--culturally and legislatively. The new leadership designs will enhancethe concept of partnering life balance with productivity, and will create aneed for more work to be done by others around the globe. More workopportunities will be created for people in World 3 countries.

Leadership in the World 3

Work for pay, in a corporate setting, is not the mode for the majority of thepeople in underdeveloped countries. To raise their standards of living, thiskind of work will be introduced so people can become more self-sufficient. Inthe Star Trek? spirit of avoiding interference with other cultures, employerswill find ways to bring employment and higher levels of prosperity todeveloping regions. Work arrangements will be designed to remain relativelycongruent with existing lifestyles--to ease the transition and to supportgradual, rather than shocking, change.

While congregate work sites will establish places for group-work, the cottageindustry model will be applied wherever possible. This alternative will avoidthe intrusion into the community of new buildings and systems that can bedisruptive and create company towns or competitive environments.

Leaders will be more coordinators, assigners, supporters, and teacher-trainers.They'll become caring members of the communities in which they work and,eventually, leaders will actually come from those communities. It will be anatural process, with informal leaders emerging to assume more formal roles, asindigenous workers learn what productive work-for-pay is all about.

The autocratic-directive style won't even be introduced in World 3 countries.It simply won't fit in the environment. As workers become more comfortable withtheir roles and their results, a more participative style will emerge. Aself-governance model will develop, with leaders-appointed and/orelected-charged with providing support, coordination, and relationships withoutside entities. Some of these work groups will operate almost as collectives;others will be similar to self-directed operations under the sponsorship oflarger corporations-domestic and international.

The evolution of leadership will necessarily be slower in so-called World 2 andWorld 3 countries, given the nature of their workforce and work-culturedevelopment. They will move at their own paces, coming closer to World 1 stylesin the latter part of the 21st century. As this stage is reached, even greateropportunities for cross-cultural leadership exchanges will emerge.

Cultural Cross-Over

Our discussion has centered on employment organizations. Certainly this venuewill be more receptive and encouraging of the transformation in leadership.Leadership is performed in other environments, as well. Volunteerorganizations, ranging from civic and professional groups to churches toparent-teacher organizations, are wonderful laboratories for leadership.

Since volunteers don't have to do what they're told, leaders in theseenvironments already apply advanced leadership skills such as persuasion,negotiation, and reward and recognition. Traditional management techniquestypically don't work where people participate voluntarily.

As we move through the 21st century, leadership in these organizations willevolve in a similar pattern, but will lag somewhat behind the process ineconomic organizations. Career drives are somewhat stronger than volunteerismdrives; the motivations and expected outcomes are different. The personalinvestment is different.

While people will operate increasingly independently in the work environment,they will belong to volunteer organizations for opportunities to collaboratewith others. The same shifts will gradually occur, but without the same levelof intensity. They'll be reflective of the people who will join, typicallythose more receptive to the leadership of others.

In 10-20 years, as we bring life and work into greater balance, people willhave more time to become involved with community and other volunteerorganizations. As they join with more time and a different sense of mission anddesire for fulfillment, we will see higher levels of intensity that may driveshifts in leadership styles. The group focus will, however, remain strong.

Leadership Integrators

As leadership evolves at different paces around the world, a new type of leaderwill emerge. This leader will understand the various phases of leadership andbe conversant in them. Able to interpret and interface with any style, thisleader will serve as a diplomat of leadership. This new job role will emergeabout 2010 and will be in greater demand as the century unfolds. Gradually,integrative leadership will take on a strong international flavor as more andmore work is done across geo-political lines.

Around 2015-2020, universities will offer interdisciplinary graduate degrees inMulti-phasic Leadership. Courses will be team-taught by academic gurus andpractitioners who can link real-world experience with management theory.Newly-minted MBAs with a minor in Multi-phasic Leadership will be in highdemand in developed countries until the late 2040s.

In the 2020s, universities will begin integrating Multi-phasic Leadership andthe traditional MBA with international studies, already a strong major. Theproduct will be well-prepared leaders who can operate globally to link all theworld's productive resources.

So what are the implications of this evolution for human resource planning?

Begin now to recruit individuals who will be able to grow into tomorrow's facilitative, participative leaders. Create a professional development program aligned with the evolutionary leadership styles that will be required in the future. Start talking with your facilities planning people about the spaces that will be needed by tomorrow's teams and individual employees to foster creativity and collaboration. Initiate conversations with MBA programs to lay the foundations for the relationships that will help you recruit tomorrow's leaders. Continue to watch the trends so that you may continue to position yourself and your organization for future success. Roger E. Herman describes himself asa Strategic Business Futurist concentrating on workforce and workplace trends.A Certified Management Consultant, speaker, and author, he is CEO of The HermanGroup in Greensboro, NC. A significant part of his work is building workforcestability and preparing leaders for the future. 

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